Alta UT
80% of simulated seasons land between 282" and 919". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Alta, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Alta's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readUtah · from the 2026-27 outlook
Utah is the ENSO agnostic: sitting between the El Niño-favored south and La Niña-favored north, Alta's long record shows essentially no reliable signal in either phase. Strong El Niños have produced everything here — 1982-83 was epic, 1997-98 solid, 2015-16 mediocre. Call it near-average with fat tails, and note that southern Utah taps the subtropical-jet bonus more reliably than the Cottonwoods.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Alta (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Alta
Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$199/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.
- Breakeven is 5.0 days at ~$199/day window tickets; you plan 10.
- Covers Alta (2d +50% off after).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.7 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 100% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $461).
- Covers Alta (7d).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.7 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $56).
- At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
- Breakeven is 15.3 days at ~$199/day window tickets; you plan 10.
- Covers Alta (unlimited).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.7 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $1,125).
- At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.