Arapahoe Basin CO
80% of simulated seasons land between 250" and 413". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Arapahoe Basin, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Arapahoe Basin's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF.
A north-south dipole: El Niño favors the southern ranges (+10-25%) via the southern storm track, is roughly neutral in the north. Statewide signal is modest. Applied as a +2% tilt at partial weight.
The 51-member SEAS5 seasonal forecast puts Nov–Jan snowfall at this grid point at 62% of its ERA5 normal (ensemble mean 90", spread 67–117"). Applied as a -10% tilt — experimental, heavily shrunk and clamped because seasonal models and reanalysis have different biases.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readColorado · from the 2026-27 outlook
El Niño splits Colorado along a northwest-southeast axis: the energized subtropical jet favors the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos, while Steamboat and the northern mountains lose their La Niña edge. Strong-event analogs (1982-83, 1997-98, 2023-24) skew average-to-above statewide with storm-heavy springs, though 2015-16 was mixed. Play it as southern Colorado above average, the I-70 corridor near normal, and March-April loaded.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Mar–Apr — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Arapahoe Basin (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Arapahoe Basin
Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$169/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.
- Breakeven is 6.0 days at ~$169/day window tickets; you plan 10.
- Covers Arapahoe Basin (unlimited).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.7 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 100% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $614).
- Breakeven is 8.6 days at ~$169/day window tickets; you plan 10.
- Covers Arapahoe Basin (unlimited).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.7 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 92% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $184).
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.