Baqueira-Beret ES
80% of simulated seasons land between 144" and 370". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Baqueira-Beret, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Baqueira-Beret's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readPyrenees · from the 2026-27 outlook
The Pyrenees share the Alps' honest answer: ENSO barely reaches them, and the season will be set by the NAO and the Atlantic storm track — unpredictable months out. Grandvalira's altitude (1,710-2,640 m) is its insurance policy; treat 2026-27 as climatological odds with a slight late-winter wet hint on the Spanish/Andorran flank in strong El Niño years.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Baqueira-Beret (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Baqueira-Beret
Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$94/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.
- Covers Baqueira-Beret (2d).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~10.0 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $181).
- At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.