Bretton Woods NH
80% of simulated seasons land between 107" and 236". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Bretton Woods, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Bretton Woods's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF.
Northern New England saw below-average snow in >90% of moderate-to-strong El Niño winters; the warm signal is more reliable than the snow signal, and coastal storm tracks can flip individual winters. Applied as a -6% tilt at partial weight.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readNortheast · from the 2026-27 outlook
Strong El Niño is a torch for New England: 2015-16 was the warmest, least-snowy winter in modern Northeast ski history, and 2023-24 wasn't much kinder. The counterweight is the amped subtropical jet, which can detonate coastal bombs when cold air is available — the hope is a 2009-10-style big-storm pattern rather than a 2015-16 washout. Plan for below-average natural snowfall and heavy snowmaking reliance, with genuine boom-or-bust nor'easter upside: one 30-inch weekend can rescue a lean year.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Feb–Mar — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Bretton Woods (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Bretton Woods
Bretton Woods isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.