June Mountain CA
80% of simulated seasons land between 112" and 393". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at June Mountain, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling June Mountain's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF.
Tahoe straddles the storm-track pivot: record 1982-83 El Niño snow, but the 1987 and 1992 strong events were droughts. High variance, low predictive value. Applied as a +2% tilt at partial weight.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readSierra · from the 2026-27 outlook
Strong El Niño is the Sierra's classic wet card, but it's south-weighted and high-variance: 1982-83 and 1997-98 were all-timers, 2023-24 finished above normal, yet 2015-16 — the 'Godzilla' El Niño that was supposed to end the drought — gave Tahoe merely an average year. Mammoth and the southern Sierra carry the continent's best odds of an above-average season outside the Southwest; Tahoe is a better-than-even wet bet with real rain-line risk below 7,000 feet. Expect a back-loaded winter — January through March is when strong-Niño Sierra seasons detonate.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Feb–Mar — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at June Mountain (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for June Mountain
Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$179/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.
- Breakeven is 5.7 days at ~$179/day window tickets; you plan 10.
- Covers June Mountain (unlimited).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.9 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 100% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $746).
- Breakeven is 8.1 days at ~$179/day window tickets; you plan 10.
- Covers June Mountain (unlimited).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.9 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 81% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $316).
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.