Mountains / Scandinavia

Levi FI

673–1,742 ft · long-term average 130" per season · window ticket ~$70 · prime window Nov–Dec

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

Snow quantity 35%42

Season lean 30%53

Powder days 20%4

Bust risk 15%92

Median sim

136" (102% of typical)

P(above typical)

55%

Powder days

~1 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 98" and 169". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Levi, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Levi's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readScandinavia · from the 2026-27 outlook

Nordic winters answer to the NAO, not the tropics — and the NAO is unpredictable at seasonal range. Sweden's Åre and Norway's Hemsedal/Trysil run cold enough that precipitation usually falls white regardless; Finnish Lapland (Levi, Ruka) is the most temperature-secure skiing in Europe. Treat 2026-27 as a normal Scandinavian lottery: no El Niño excuse, no El Niño boost.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Nov–Dec — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Levi (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Levi

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$70/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

Days you plan to ski there

10days

Day ticket $ (default ~$70)

Indy Pass$369

SKIP

0%seasons it pays off−$229expected vs tickets—breakeven days

Covers Levi (2d).
Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~10.0 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $229).
At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.

2 days at each of 300+ independent resorts, blackout dates on the base tier. Verdicts here count only the mountains in your plan.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.