Mont Orford QC
80% of simulated seasons land between 90" and 153". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Mont Orford, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Mont Orford's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF.
Quebec's El Niño signal is thermal — strong events run 2-4°C mild, converting marginal storms to rain (1997-98 was 'the winter El Niño cancelled' per Environment Canada). The juiced subtropical jet can still land big synoptic storms when cold air holds. Applied as a -5% tilt at partial weight.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readEastern Canada · from the 2026-27 outlook
Quebec's strong-El Niño problem is warmth more than storm count: 1997-98 — the winter Environment Canada says El Niño 'cancelled' — brought Quebec City its mildest winter on record, and 2015-16 repeated the trick at Tremblant. The wildcard is the El Niño-fueled subtropical jet, which can still land heavyweight synoptic snowstorms on the St. Lawrence when cold air cooperates. Expect a below-average, snowmaking-dependent season with a compressed mid-January-to-early-March core.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Mont Orford (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Mont Orford
Mont Orford isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.