Mountains / Utah

Park City UT

6,801–10,026 ft · long-term average 355" per season · window ticket ~$351 · prime window Jan–Feb

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27

Snow quantity 35%72

Season lean 30%43

Powder days 20%72

Bust risk 15%78

Median sim

320" (94% of typical)

P(above typical)

45%

Powder days

~18 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 224" and 464". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Park City, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Park City's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readUtah · from the 2026-27 outlook

Utah is the ENSO agnostic: sitting between the El Niño-favored south and La Niña-favored north, Alta's long record shows essentially no reliable signal in either phase. Strong El Niños have produced everything here — 1982-83 was epic, 1997-98 solid, 2015-16 mediocre. Call it near-average with fat tails, and note that southern Utah taps the subtropical-jet bonus more reliably than the Cottonwoods.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Jan–Feb — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Park City (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Park City

Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$351/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.

Days you plan to ski there

10days

Day ticket $ (default ~$351)

Best value for your plan

Epic Local$829

STRONG BUY

100%seasons it pays off+$2,633expected vs tickets2.4breakeven days

Breakeven is 2.4 days at ~$351/day window tickets; you plan 10.
Covers Park City (unlimited).
Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.9 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 100% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $2,633).

Unlimited with holiday restrictions at most core resorts; 10 combined holiday-restricted days at Vail, Beaver Creek, and Whistler Blackcomb.

Epic Pass$1,119

STRONG BUY

100%seasons it pays off+$2,343expected vs tickets3.2breakeven days

Breakeven is 3.2 days at ~$351/day window tickets; you plan 10.
Covers Park City (unlimited).
Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.9 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 100% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean saving $2,343).

Unlimited, unrestricted access at all Vail Resorts mountains — no blackouts, no reservations.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.