Schweitzer ID
80% of simulated seasons land between 117" and 404". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Schweitzer, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Schweitzer's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF.
Jackson Hole and Big Sky are La Niña-favored (seasonal MEI correlation ~-47%); El Niño winters trend warmer with below-normal precipitation. Applied as a -5% tilt at partial weight.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readNorthern Rockies · from the 2026-27 outlook
Jackson, Big Sky, and the Idaho panhandle are La Niña country, and a strong El Niño typically strands them on the dry, warm side of a southward-displaced storm track — strong La Niña months out-snow strong El Niño months by 30% or more at inland areas. 1997-98 and 2023-24 both brought below-average, late-starting seasons here. Plan on 80-90% of normal snowfall, cold enough at elevation to preserve quality, with the best stretch arriving February onward.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Dec–Jan — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Schweitzer (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Schweitzer
Verdicts run the full simulated snow distribution through breakeven math at ~$149/day window prices. Add trip legs on the home page to compare passes across your whole season.
- Breakeven is 9.7 days at ~$149/day window tickets; you plan 10.
- Covers Schweitzer (unlimited).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.3 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 34% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $67).
- Marginal — waiting costs only price-increase risk. Alterra raises prices in steps through summer and fall; sales end in December 2026.
- Covers Schweitzer (5d).
- Snow-adjusted across the simulated seasons, expect ~9.3 covered days; the pass beats window tickets in 0% of 10,000 simulated seasons (mean shortfall $274).
- At this plan, window tickets or a cheaper product wins.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.