Sierra Nevada ES
80% of simulated seasons land between 17" and 347". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.
10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Sierra Nevada, tilted by the live seasonal outlook
Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.
What's driving this forecast
The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Sierra Nevada's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF.
Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.
The regional readPyrenees · from the 2026-27 outlook
The Pyrenees share the Alps' honest answer: ENSO barely reaches them, and the season will be set by the NAO and the Atlantic storm track — unpredictable months out. Grandvalira's altitude (1,710-2,640 m) is its insurance policy; treat 2026-27 as climatological odds with a slight late-winter wet hint on the Spanish/Andorran flank in strong El Niño years.
Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver
Prime window: Jan–Feb — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.
The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Sierra Nevada (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase
Pass math for Sierra Nevada
Sierra Nevada isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.
No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.
Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.