❄ PassCast
Mountains / Scandinavia

Trysil NO

1,362–3,609 ft · long-term average 145" per season · window ticket ~$64 · prime window Nov–Dec

PassCast reseeded 2026-07-10 · season 2026-27
48SKIABILITY / 100Solid skiing expected
Snow quantity 35%44
Season lean 30%50
Powder days 20%12
Bust risk 15%100
Median sim
144" (100% of typical)
P(above typical)
51%
Powder days
~3 (6"+ days)

80% of simulated seasons land between 112" and 191". Reseeded daily as ENSO observations, CPC outlooks, and SEAS5 runs update.

10,000 simulated 2026-27 seasonsENSO-weighted resampling of 36 real seasons (1990–2026) at Trysil, tilted by the live seasonal outlook

50"100"150"200"250"300"P10 112"P50 144"P90 191"typical 144"

Highlighted bars span the middle half of outcomes (P25–P75). The yellow dashed line is a typical season — the median of the last 36 at this mountain.

What's driving this forecast

ENSO: El Niño favored (99%)

The 2026-27 season is simulated by resampling Trysil's historical seasons weighted toward El Niño analog years. NOAA CPC El Niño Advisory (June 11, 2026): El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into winter 2026-27, with a 63% chance of a very strong event (Niño3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) during Nov-Jan. CPC DJF strength odds: very strong 46%, strong 33%, moderate 16%. IRI (June 22) concurs at 98% El Niño for DJF.

Pre-season: climate drivers only

Day-to-day weather models have no skill this far out, so the near-term forecast contributes 0% weight today. The simulation leans entirely on ENSO-conditioned climatology — exactly what an honest seasonal outlook should do in summer. Weighting shifts toward live forecasts as opening day approaches.

The regional readScandinavia · from the 2026-27 outlook

Nordic winters answer to the NAO, not the tropics — and the NAO is unpredictable at seasonal range. Sweden's Åre and Norway's Hemsedal/Trysil run cold enough that precipitation usually falls white regardless; Finnish Lapland (Levi, Ruka) is the most temperature-secure skiing in Europe. Treat 2026-27 as a normal Scandinavian lottery: no El Niño excuse, no El Niño boost.

Full global outlook →

Month by monthENSO-conditioned analog medians vs a typical month — when this season should deliver

Nov114%Dec98%Jan92%Feb102%Mar128%Apr97%
Typical month (median)ENSO-conditioned lean, wetENSO-conditioned lean, dry

Prime window: Nov–Dec — the deepest contiguous stretch of the conditioned season. Aim the trip there.

The analog poolEvery season since 1990 at Trysil (ERA5, calibrated to the resort's reported average), colored by ENSO phase

75"125"200"250"1990-91: 135" (ONI +0.4)1991-92: 150" (ONI +1.7)1992-93: 152" (ONI +0.1)1993-94: 181" (ONI +0.1)1994-95: 203" (ONI +1.0)1995-96: 56" (ONI -0.9)1996-97: 117" (ONI -0.5)1997-98: 150" (ONI +2.2)1998-99: 171" (ONI -1.6)1999-00: 157" (ONI -1.7)2000-01: 172" (ONI -0.7)2001-02: 134" (ONI -0.1)2002-03: 126" (ONI +0.9)2003-04: 124" (ONI +0.4)2004-05: 127" (ONI +0.6)2005-06: 143" (ONI -0.8)2006-07: 139" (ONI +0.7)2007-08: 222" (ONI -1.6)2008-09: 155" (ONI -0.8)2009-10: 128" (ONI +1.5)2010-11: 102" (ONI -1.3)2011-12: 123" (ONI -0.7)2012-13: 107" (ONI -0.3)2013-14: 232" (ONI -0.3)2014-15: 172" (ONI +0.7)2015-16: 144" (ONI +2.6)2016-17: 132" (ONI -0.2)2017-18: 171" (ONI -0.8)2018-19: 111" (ONI +0.9)2019-20: 177" (ONI +0.6)2020-21: 152" (ONI -0.9)2021-22: 100" (ONI -0.8)2022-23: 184" (ONI -0.5)2023-24: 151" (ONI +1.9)2024-25: 82" (ONI -0.5)2025-26: 136" (ONI -0.4)19901995200020052010201520202025
La Niña winterNeutralEl Niño winterTypical winter (median)

Pass math for Trysil

Trysil isn't on a multi-resort pass — but you can still see what a season here is worth.

10days

No multi-resort pass covers these mountains — window tickets are the play.

Sources: ERA5 reanalysis & multi-model forecasts via Open-Meteo · NOAA CPC ONI, ENSO advisory & seasonal outlook · ECMWF SEAS5 · pass prices verified July 2026. See methodology for the honest fine print.